Don’t sit back and relax thinking that we have outsmarted the virus that played havoc in the west! No. The story might have just begun; the painful and draconian lock down has in deed provided the much needed time to prepare the population mentally, equip the paramedical facilities and reach nearer to the timeframe of a viable therapy or vaccines if at all made available or wait for some miracle!
From the present mortality rate of 0.14% among the tested population, and the data available so far (with the lock down constraint) some future projections can be made:
Assuming the general population has more immunity and the general physical distancing measures are adhered to even after completely lifting the lock down, one can’t get better than 1/10th of this mortality rates, that is 0.014% or 3 deaths per 20000. This works out to roughly 1.8 lakh deaths for the whole population to get infected; or half of it for 50% to get infected and achieve the herd immunity (based on the experience of various immunisation programs), which means 0.9 lakhs death! Ok. But when?
Presently 50K have been infected and 10 days is the doubling time. Even if the doubling time becomes 20 days, by the end of two months, only 4 lakh would be infected, that is July.
By sep 32 lakhs… and so on, if this races in this speed, 256 lakh by nov, 40 crores by Jan. that is almost nearer the target for herd immunity. That is, in this scenario, around 90K deaths in the whole country by Jan 2021.
If we achieve herd immunity with 1/4th population optimistically, even then the death will be an astounding 45K which we would reach by Dec!
There is no absolute way of modelling, the whole projection is riddled with lots and lots of assumptions. Mine is the most optimistic scenario as of today. Rest assured, that these numbers must be haunting the minds of the mandarins managing the outbreak menace!
Should there not be some out of the box thinking – such as open to other systems of medicines in a big way? It is certain that the allopathic system has raised its hands already with excuses! Man once believed that he is invincible with lots and lots of understanding of human anatomy and medical therapies!
If the virus chain gets completely broken and the those entering the country are monitored with utmost vigil, then the doubling time can substantially increase; this may not be entirely impossible. Or some miracle should happen, like its committing suicide, with no remnant virus strain with anybody except in the labs, the virus would have its hay day at least upto the end of this year – by the way, who wished you happy new year – 2020?
Sit back and enjoy getting raped – watch the Cosmic dance or vandalism of the virus – whatever you wish to call this ‘fiasco’!
Nattu’s Page 