China is not stupid as Pakistan. They are long term strategists. As early as in the 5th century BC, Sun Tzu, the greatest war leader and strategist of ancient China, in his master piece work, The Art of War writes, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”. Never be in conflict with your competitors, instead acquire or merge with them. Chinese religiously succeeded with this strategy for decades and have attained supremacy not only in the corporate world but also in annexing neighbours’ territories.
May be they are at it now precisely, by positioning large number of troops in the border: not to wage a war but only to weaken India by draining its resources. While China, with its economic might can sustain a much protracted stand off, India can’t with its shrinking GDP, in their fight with the COVID-19.
No wonder if Xi soon invite India for a summit at the diplomatic table for a permanent border settlement to ensure an everlasting peace between the two Asian giants, pronouncing sermons on the futility of such standoffs. With its economy limping, it is the opportune time to coerce and nail india down for a settlement. Xi would portray himself as a statesman to the international community; he would even get a Nobel nomination for peace!
The longer the standoff, more the psychological pressure would be on India, both in the domestic and international fronts. In the negotiating table, China would bargain to retain some of the newly occupied territories, ‘legally’ as they have been doing all the while. But, would it be possible this time with a hardened Indian political leadership? Would india just settle for a status quo ante of April or would they like shift the clock still back? Would india mutely retreat like in the Bangladesh war by climbing down from the peaks that they have now strategically occupied? Indian negotiators have lot of options!
But, on the other hand, a full scale war, which China does not want, could be more beneficial to India in the long run, not withstanding the serious perils, at least in the short term. India can even get back the territories of pre-1962 era.
Who would be the hero, negotiating strategist Ajit Dovel or Major General Navane in the war theatre? How the standoff evolve would be known only just before the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October, when Xi starts to play out his cards. Would he retreat after building so much of troops without getting anything in return? Would military reshuffle happen with some rolling of heads for the misadventure, by passing the buck? Definitely before winter, the clouds in sky would clear.
One thing is certain: China does not want to engage, any enemy for that matter, in a physical world.
Credits:
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twaXv8DsVss&feature=share
2. China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories and Long-Term Competition: Rand Corporation.
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