எரியிற கொள்ளில எந்த கொள்ளி நல்ல கொள்ளி

அமெரிக்காவின் எதிரியாக இருப்பது ஆபத்தானது, ஆனால் நண்பராக இருப்பது அதனிலும் கொடுமையானது. இதை சொன்னதே ஒரு அமெரிக்கர்தான் – புகழ்பெற்ற அந்த சாணக்கியர் ஹென்றி கிசிஞ்சர்.

ரஷயப்பேரரசு உடைந்த 1990களில், வாஷிங்டன் உலகத்தின் ஒரே வல்லரசாகிய தருணத்தில், பிரேசிலும் இந்தியாவும் அமெரிக்க அதிகாரத்தின் மீது எழ்ந்த அவநம்பிக்கையால் மற்ற உறவுகளை அமைத்துக் கொள்ள ஆரம்பித்தன.

அமெரிக்கா எப்பொதுமே தனக்குப் பிடிக்காத பேச்சுவார்த்தைகளை கைவிடுவது; சர்வதேச அதிகார அமைப்புகளின் கட்டுப்பாடுகளை மீறுவது; தாங்கள் விதிப்பதுதான் விதிகள், இணங்குவது உங்கள் கடமை போன்ற நிகழ்வுகளை உலகம் சகித்துக்கொண்டுதான் உள்ளது.

மறுபுறம், பெய்ஜிங் சீன ஏற்றுமதிகளுக்கு வர்த்தக விதிமுறைகளையும் உலகம் கண்டும் காணாமல்தான் உள்ளது.

இந்த இரண்டு பொருளாதார வல்லரசுகளில் எதை சார்வது என்பதில் பல நாடுகள் குழம்பின – எரியிற கொள்ளில எந்த கொள்ளி நல்ல கொள்ளி என்பது தான் வளரும் நாடுகளின் நிலை.

ஆனால் பிரேசிலும் இந்தியாவும் யாரையும் முழுமையாக சார்ந்திருப்பது இறையாண்மைக்கு உகந்தது அல்ல என்ற முடிவுக்கு வந்து அதற்கான வழிமுறைகளையும் வகுத்துக்கொண்டுள்ளன.

தற்போது பிரேசிலும் இந்தியாவும் டிரம்பின் வரிகளை எதிர்த்து அமெரிக்க பொருளாதார வற்புறுத்தலை வெற்றிகரமாக எதிர்க்க முடியும் என்று நிரூபித்தால், மேலும் பிற நாடுகள் நிச்சயமாக இந்த பாதையில் செல்ல ஏதுவாகும். இதன் விளைவு ஒரு புதிய உலக ஒழுங்காக இருக்காது, ஒழுங்கின்மையாகத்தான் இருக்கும் – 20 ஆம் நூற்றாண்டின் முற்பகுதியில் பல சக்திகளும் பலவீனமான சர்வதேச நிறுவனங்களும் இறுதியில் உலகப் போருக்கு அடித்தளமிட்ட குழப்பமான பன்முகத்தன்மைக்குத் இது உலகை திருப்பும். இது ஸ்திரத்தன்மைக்கு எந்த உத்தரவாதத்தையும் அளிக்காது.

ஆனால், அமெரிக்க மேலாதிக்க ஏகாதிபத்யம் முடிவுக்கு வரும்.

வரும் காலங்களில் விநியோகச் சங்கிலிகள் உடைக்கப்படும்போது ஒரு புறம் அமெரிக்கர்கள் அன்றாடப் பொருட்களுக்கு அதிக விலை கொடுப்பார்கள், டாலர் அதன் அந்தஸ்தை இழப்பதைப் பார்ப்பார்கள், உலகின் வேகமாக வளர்ந்து வரும் சந்தைகளில் இருந்து தங்கள் நிறுவனங்கள் பூட்டப்படுவதைப் பார்ப்பார்கள்.

மறுபுறம் பிரேசிலியர்களும் இந்தியர்களும் இறக்குமதி செய்யப்பட்ட தொழில்நுட்பத்திற்கான அதிக விலைகளை எதிர்கொள்ள நேரிடும், மொத்தத்தில் உலகத்தின் பொருளாதாரம் நசிந்து, நிச்சயமற்றதாகவும், மோதலுக்கு ஆளாகக்கூடியதாகவும் இருக்கும். குழப்பங்கள் அதிகரிக்கும்…

BRICS அமைப்பு எப்படி இதை எதிர்கொண்டு பொறுப்புடன் சமாளிக்கப்போகிறதோ – பார்ப்போம். ஆனால் அந்த பொறுப்பு ஒருதலை பட்சமல்லவே? அதில் அமெரிக்காவுக்கும் பங்கு உள்ளதே? மோடியும் பரேசிலின் லுலாவும் ட்ரம்புக்கு அடிபணிந்து தங்கள் நாட்டின் நலத்தை விட்டுக்கொடுக்க மாட்டார்கள். ட்ரம்பும் தன் நாட்டின் பொருளாதாரத்தைக் காட்டிலும் தன் சொந்த விருப்பு வெறுப்புக்களுக்குத்தான் அதிக முக்கியத்துவம் கொடுப்பார் என்பது நிச்சயம். அவருக்கு கடிவாளம் போட அமெரிக்க அரசியல் சாசனத்தில் வழியில்லை. இன்னும் நான்கு வருடங்கள் இந்த ஒருவரின் கோமாளித்தனத்திற்கு உலகமே அதிக விலை கொடுக்கவேண்டிய கட்டாயத்தில் உள்ளது. அதன் பிறகு மீள எவ்வளவு காலம் பிடிக்குமோ?

ஆனால் ஒன்று – வரலாற்றின் பாதை வெகு வேகமாக மாறிக்கொண்டு வருகிறது என்பது மட்டும் நிச்சயம். இந்த காட்டாற்றில் யாருக்கு அதிகம் பாதிப்பு என்பது போகப்போகத்தான் தெரியும்.

Is making hay while it shines, unethical?

So much is talked about pharma giants making ‘a kill’ in the pandemic ‘tsunami’. Is it immoral? Who is competent to decide what is morality in the first place? Anybody could have done the needed research and found the elixir! It is a free world. At the beginning of the game itself it is known the winner would take it all. They have won and get their fair return for their success. Period.

There is shrill cry that though the pharma companies have got state funding for the research, the price of the vaccines which are products of the research, is disproportionately high. But, after all, the state also knows it is betting on a winning horse; it has in fact tied (unethically) all the supplies on priority exclusively for its own use. Any other tags could also have been tied to the recipient of the grant.. but having agreed, now crying foul is anarchism.

One would then argue that in any State sponsored research, the fruits of the efforts should accrue to the society since it is public money. But, ethically, to promote research state should fund such researches in public interest without tying the funding for its own benefit. After all the knowledge generated is not the exclusive domain of the state but of the scientists whose free will play a major role. Even then, the state in its wisdom desires to stake a claim, it is free to incorporate such a clause in the contract while awarding the grant. If not, there is no binding. Play as per rules of the game – don’t change rules retrospectively just because you are empowered! But be a referee and ensure fair playing field.

Should in all state funded research programs, state must have a share? Can the public rightfully demand a stake always in the product, even without such a contractual binding? It is akin to binding all the students graduated as subordinates to the state as they have indirectly got the state funding! What would be the responsibility of those who graduate with state scholarship? To what extent are they subordinate to the state?

This sort of allegations of exploitation, making huge profits and demands to cut down the price, throttle motivation to innovate in scientific arena where the success rates are low and opportunity costs are the norms! Who pays for failed research anyway? If the vaccines had fizzled out, would the market even whisper? No way….

Compared to the US model of Pfizer, Moderna funding or UK’s Astra Zeneca for that matter, is far different from that of India’s handholding strategy at every step of the development of vaccine: Covaxin is a Codeveloped product with the public-private cooperation. Covishield production capacity was funded with advance purchase agreements. These models largely helped in keeping the prices in check and affordable. The agreements are transparent compared to that of Pfizer’s! Why the west succumbed to the conditions of contract, the terms were kept secret, could be due to the eagerness of securing the scarce supplies on priority, ‘at any cost’, in common parlance. Now, on looking back, the west might contemplate on the unnecessary urgency and the trap it fell into. But that is a different story altogether. They have missed the bus!

Arm twisting the companies at this point of time, citing their profit margins, is unethical. At best, you take it or leave it at your peril. These strategies get support only with those having ‘collectivist’ mindset: only a few would toil to generate knowledge and wealth while every one in the society would share equally. This communist philosophy cannot sustain.

Don’t expect a free lunch without a sweat!

Should commercial interests supersede passenger safety?

The crash Sunday morning of a jetliner in Ethiopia bears unmistakable similarities to the Oct. 29 tragedy off the coast of Indonesia involving the same model, prompting questions about whether a design issue that arose during the earlier accident could be to blame. It is the second fatal crash of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in six months.

Experts urged caution about drawing conclusions too quickly, although details of the crashes – shortly after takeoff, at relatively low altitudes with erratic flight patterns – seem similar, the data are insufficient to conclude that the same systems were at fault.

The Indonesian Lion Air Plane air crash report found that a sensor measuring the plane’s “angle of attack” fed erroneous data into the plane’s flight control system, at which point an automatic feature kicked in, sending the plane into a nose dive. The problem lies with “angle of attack” sensors that measure the wind speed over an aircraft’s wings, according to the Boeing notification. Their measurements are meant to detect if a plane is moving too slowly, which can cause it to lose control. The Lion Air plane lost altitude dozens of times before it crashed as the jet’s computers, thinking it was in danger of losing control, continually tried to push down its nose. The pilots countermanded the aircraft’s software over and over, pulling it back into climbs, until they failed to do so and it crashed.

The report stopped short of assigning blame for the crash. However, multiple pilots organizations in the United States criticized Boeing after it disclosed that it had made certain changes to the MAX’s autopilot software – it added a new flight-control feature, the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). The updated software was meant to account for design changes to the 737 MAX, and was supposed to make the plane operate as closely as possible to older 737 models despite having larger engines placed farther forward on the plane’s wings. While the MCAS system was ostensibly added to make the plane safer, pilot unions in the United States said they had been left “in the dark” about the software update and criticised Boeing for failing to cover the new system in training sessions.

If the results of an inspection turn up significant design flaws in the 737 MAX, planes could be grounded worldwide. Six Boeing 737 Maxs are in use in India —five by Jet Airways and one by SpiceJet. The two airlines have also placed orders for over 200. Following Boeing’s circular, India’s civil aviation regulator, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has asked Jet Airways and SpiceJet to address any issues with their 737 Max aircraft.

After the Ethiopian crash, Only China has so far grounded similar aircrafts: China’s aviation regulator had ordered Chinese airlines, which has 96 737 MAX jets in service, to suspend the operations.

The 737 MAX 8, which was expected to significantly improve the fuel efficiency, has been a major profit driver for Boeing since it was introduced in 2017, and it is critical to Boeing’s broader international ambitions as it competes with Airbus, its European rival in the commercial airline business. Boeing has delivered 354 of the jets globally and has another 2,912 on order. The jet that crashed Sunday was one of five 737 MAX 8 planes operated by Ethiopian Airlines, which has 25 more on order. In the United States, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have 59 between their two fleets, with 304 on order.

Why should the regulators and the designers soft pedal the Lion Air crash analysis that could have led to a ‘repeat’ incident? Whether commercial interests camouflage the passenger safety?

Business strategies run in the family?

Is dubious accounting the mysterious reason for the telecom giant Reliance Jio’s rosy balance sheets? Jio reported its fifth straight profitable October-December 2018 quarter, with a net profit of Rs 831 crore, compared with Rs 504 crore in the comparable previous quarter a year ago. This is inspite of Jio sinking a monumental $40 billion (Rs 2.8 lakh crore), huge marketing costs and the highest continuing infrastructure burden. Doesn’t it look strange for a company with huge infra investment, can break even so quickly?

Market watchers are truly baffled. Could it be ‘Creative’ Accounting? in the beginning, the balance sheet showed six months of revenues in a three-month reporting period! Jio also burnt crores in operating costs including salaries with these heads being shifted to capital instead of revenue costs and not showing on the income-expenditure statements. This was detected in the FY18 annual report. Even interest costs worth Rs 5,799 crore were capitalised. It is baffling why financial wizards are not taking the bull by the horn?

Lured by its cheapest pre and postpaid tariffs, Vodafone-Idea and Airtel list as many as 8 crore low-paying subscribers. They had accounted for a recharge of less than Rs 35 a month were dumped and disconnected post December last year. Now, no prizes to guess where these disconnected guys are headed! How do they add anything to Jio’s bottomline?

It doesn’t take extraordinary vision to understand where Reliance Jio is headed. The promise of cheap prices and easy access to data and smartphones is designed to finish off competition. Jio has sustaining power, which others don’t; but it is also obvious that the current price packages cannot sustain. We are down to three operators in the telecom space. There were too many earlier; and too much competition proved debilitating for the industry. But if there is no competition, consumers will be the losers, when Jio starts jacking up tariffs. It is high time the problems of an uneven playing field raised by the Cellular Operators Association are addressed by the government, and the industry allowed to become sustainable.

Is the neutral regulator TRAI helplessly watching the mayhem?

Is Mukesh is reenacting what his dad Dhirubhai did unethically while building his textile empire four decades ago? Modi leaning Auditor Gurumurthy, who brought out the capricious Reliance story to limelight at that time in Indian Express, is curiously dumb. Selective amnesia?

It is a proverbial adage that the ruthless Business strategies run in the blood!

Credits:

http://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2019/feb/17/jio-cant-be-allowed-to-finish-off-competitors-1939768.html

Will Air India go KFA way?

Is government mulling closing down the maharajah? Steps in the direction of revival has not yielded an iota Of return so far: specialist directors Deveshwar and Birla in the board could not wave their magic wands; No sane private entrepreneur would buy this white elephant with all the liabilities bleeding the enterprise profusely; the packages were awfully unprofessional! Even then the trade unions and the opposition parties cried foul! Even those responsible for this predicament shamelessly raised their voices! Govt did not have the spine to put an attractive offer to get competitive bids; they were in fact loaded in such a way that the proposed sell out could not attract any bidders at all! NDA failed in its mission for a turn around or disinvestment….

Now, Govt funds are not forthcoming even for day to day operations! MoF points fingers in the direction of PM; PMO will now be blamed if salaries are not paid – who bothers if the carrier does not operate and is not viable..

One can think of writing off the debt, if the carrier shows at least some operating profits; but it seems to be nowhere in sight. There is no good reason to nurture this sick baby other than sentimental!

What is in store for the severely battered enterprise? Whether whirling vortex to the dark abyss has already begun? Are they planning a slow painful death for the national carrier instead of euthanasia?

Will Air India go KFA way?