The mysterious dilemma of modern day social distancing

Infectious diseases spread though contacts, either through the physical or airborne routes. The speed of the spread is measured by what is known as ‘doubling time‘, the time it takes for the number of persons infected to double. For example, with a doubling time of 2 days, the number of infected would swell by 16 times every week while with just three days doubling time it would only increase four times! In simple terms, in a three day doubling time scenario, every infected person interacts socially an uninfected one once in three days to infect! The effectiveness of different interventions are assessed by comparing the doubling time, the more effective an intervention is if the doubling time is more.

‘Social distancing‘ is one such measure for viruses that spread by contact and are carried through particles in air. Reduce the contact and allow sufficient distance for the particle not to contaminate. The idea is not new; it has been known and deployed successfully for centuries in the ancient eastern cultures, for improving cleanliness in normal times and reduce community spread during afflictions. Isn’t it surprising that it is such a difficult option in modern day to day life, be it public transport, restaurants, shopping malls, concert halls, and so on, is unthinkable to live without them!

The 1918 flu, also known as the Spanish flu, that lasted until 1920, is considered the deadliest of the pandemics in recorded modern history. Today, as the world has come to a grinding halt in response to the corona virus, scientists and historians are studying the 1918 outbreak for clues to the most effective way to stop a similar global pandemic. The efforts implemented then to stem the flu’s spread in cities across America—and the outcomes—may offer lessons for battling today’s crisis. Studies found, one of the keys to flattening the curve was social distancing. And that likely remains true a century later, in the current battle. Compare typically two states of US Philadelphia and St. Louis:

The total number of deaths in Philadelphia is twice as much higher than St. Louis which has put in place social distancing measures. For example, It didn’t cancel a World War I victory celebration parade as the 1918 flu picked up, which most likely would have led to thousands of infections. But, the other fact that the impact of the virus reduced quicker, that is within 4 weeks compared to 12 weeks in St. Louis.

As the non medical interventions such as social distancing, was lifted up, St Louis showed a jump in the mortality rates: The flat curve just shot up for a few weeks, nevertheless the second peak was not astounding.

The lessons of 1918, if well heeded, might help in avoiding repeating the same history today.

But it is not an ‘open and shut‘ case: as since then, lot of water has flown under the bridge, decades of advances, by the pharmaceutical companies — finding treatments or vaccines for major illnesses, including H.I.V. and smallpox — the developed countries such as US, had a built-in expectation that no matter what the ailment, there must be some kind of available fix. Locking your family inside your home and advising not to socialise, seemed a retrograde measure. Encouraging or forcing people not to go to work appeared economically disastrous.

How to assess the pros and cons? Let us assign an economic value to human life by estimating the implicit value that people in a given society place on continuing to live based on their willingness to pay for services that reduce their risk of dying. It is then possible to compare the gain of estimated person death-value with the loss of GDP before enforcing any non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing. The statistical models, however inaccurate they may be, are available to guide the policy makers in choosing such extreme measures as options during pandemics especially when the medical interventions are not available.

Nearly two decades back, The Bush administration, concerned with bioterrorism after the Sept. 11, 2001, encouraged scientific exploration of alternate (unconventional) strategies to handle such national disasters arising out of natural or manmade. Bush’s concern was accentuated by a string of new outbreaks caused by infectious diseases transferring from birds and other animals to humans, including an avian flu, that year in Vietnam. Because there was no vaccine for these new threats, they could spread rapidly.

The concept of ‘social distancing’ as a tact was first whispered as a policy and later made its way through the US federal bureaucracy in 2006; it was viewed as impractical, unnecessary and politically infeasible. It required the key proponents — Dr. Mecher, a Department of Veterans Affairs physician, and Dr. Hatchett, an oncologist turned White House adviser — to overcome intense initial opposition. In February 2007, the C.D.C. made their approach — bureaucratically called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, or NPIs — official U.S. policy. Following a five-year review by the Obama administration, the strategy was updated in a document published in 2017. A rough road indeed for the ‘social distancing’ to find a place as a government policy! But strangely, no other country has any such public ‘policy’!

Dr. Mecher was a key voice on the “Red Dawn” email chain of public health experts in raising early warnings this year about the coronavirus outbreak. A week after the first coronavirus case had been identified in the United States, and six long weeks before President Trump finally took aggressive action to confront the danger the nation was facing — a pandemic that is now forecast to take tens of thousands of American lives — Dr. Mecher was urging the upper ranks of the nation’s public health bureaucracy to wake up and prepare for the possibility of far more drastic action. “You guys made fun of me screaming to close the schools,” he wrote to the group, which called itself Red Dawn, to an inside joke based on the 1984 movie about a band of Americans trying to save the country after a foreign invasion.

Throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus and focused on other issues, an array of figures inside his government — from top White House advisers to experts deep in the cabinet departments and intelligence agencies — identified the threat, sounded alarms and made clear the need for aggressive action. The president, though, was slow to absorb the scale of the risk and to act accordingly, focusing instead on controlling the message, protecting gains in the economy and batting away warnings from senior officials. At last, ‘social distancing‘ became one of the mitigating state enforcement strategy in US. In hindsight, US might be paying dearly for Mr. Trump’s dilly dallying in embracing shutdowns and social distancing!

Social distancing measures in simple terms are steps you can take to reduce social interaction between people. This will help reduce the transmission of viral diseases such as coronavirus (COVID-19), that gets transmitted from affected persons.

This seemingly simple strategy of intervention advices nothing more than to

Stay at least 6 feet (about 2 arms’ length) from other people
Do not gather in groups
Stay out of crowded places and avoid mass gatherings

Looks simple panacea; healthy practices to follow even in ‘non-corona‘ times, isn’t it? Now Social distancing and lock downs are the buzz words of all countries for retarding the rapid spread Covid-19, that has no known and proven therapy for cure! That will be the order of the days to come till a viable vaccine arrives!

See how life has changed in the course of a couple of months since the beginning of the year! You don’t have an option to pursue your wish for free life, enjoy liberty and pursue happiness, the buzzwords of a free society! Life is strange, indeed. So learn to ‘stand apart‘ in modern times to allow the invisible monster to ‘pass through‘!

Photo: The Indian state of Kerala has found unique way to promote social distancing: Use umbrellas; Since two opened umbrellas, not touching each other, will ensure minimum distance of 1 meter from one another meeting the safe distancing requirement!

Credits:

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/social-distancing-coronavirus.html

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html?referringSource=articleShare.

3. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

China may refuse to learn but why should others?

The danger posed by live animal markets wasn’t the only lesson that China failed to learn from the SARS epidemic. When China first identified SARS in January 2003, it kept the news a state secret for two weeks as people crisscrossed the country for the Lunar New Year celebrations, just as it suppressed information about the novel coronavirus 17 years later. Paralleling the tragic case of Li Wenliang, the Wuhan doctor who died of the coronavirus after being reprimanded for raising the alarm, SARS also had its own tragic hero: ambulance driver Fan Xinde, the first medical worker to die from exposure to patients. As far as the Chinese response is concerned, COVID-19 might as well have been named SARS-AGAIN.

Viruses may be forces of nature, but the coronavirus epidemic clearly seems to have been China-made. In part to deflect from these facts, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been busy trying to turn the coronavirus pandemic to its propaganda advantage. Chinese authorities may not be wrong in ridiculing the west for not adopting its model to bring the epidemic under control!

As the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak has shifted from China to Europe, Chinese state-run media also began to actively report about China sending medical experts to other countries to help them fight the coronavirus. Ironically, the Chinese model of ‘locking down’ their citizens, restricting their freedom is being imposed by several sworn democracies for countering the menace of ‘Chinese virus’!

So, when Jiang said China wants to demonstrate to the world that its governance system is better equipped in a crisis than the liberal democracies in the West, he may not be entirely wrong! “In crisis situations such as this, a top-down management model will be adopted. This case has given China the opportunity to demonstrate the advantages of an authoritarian model,” Jiang said, adding that sending experts abroad is a good way to show that the Chinese are “good global citizens.”

Countries hit by the coronavirus pandemic will certainly continue to accept Chinese offers of face masks and respirators, and no doubt their people will be grateful for the help. Nonetheless, once the crisis has passed, China’s broader social and political model will still be unattractive to all but a few morally corrupt elites.

But, China’s heavy-handed police state may have conquered the coronavirus, but few people will embrace one-party rule just to ensure their safety in future pandemics. Xi can best avoid this fate by adopting the very transparency that he and the party have assiduously avoided. Yet openness is a mortal threat to the continued rule of the CCP. The virus thus exposes the CCP’s mortal paradox, one which shows the paralysis at the heart of modern China. For this reason alone, the world’s dependence on China should be responsibly reduce.

“If you talk to the Chinese people, they’ll tell you that this [system of government] cannot last forever. So someday there will be a big change, but they don’t know when, they don’t know how, or what the process will be,” Akio Takahara, one of Japan’s leading scholars on China, told US-based reporters. And, he added, it won’t necessarily be peaceful.

The pandemic of 2020 has brought doubts about globalization into the mainstream. Perhaps the biggest long-term economic effect of coronavirus will be on long-standing assumptions about global supply chains. In the longer run, they must look to reform globalization by prudently reshaping their economies and societies in the shadow of future crises.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/beijing_fears_covid-19_is_turning_point_for_china_globalization__142686.html

Would Covid-19 be less lethal in India?

Dr D Nageshwar Reddy, the Hyderabad-based gastroenterologist, who was awarded the Padma Bhushan in 2016 and who currently serves as the Chairman of the Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, shares two key findings that give India reason to hope – one emerging from a study on genome sequencing and another from research on the impact of temperature on the virus.

could the Indian version of the virus be less lethal? May be, yes.. Coronavirus, an RNA virus, seems to be in bats; A small mutation occurred which allowed it to get transmitted from bats to humans. Sequencing of the whole virus has been done in four countries — the first in the USA, second in Italy, third in China and fourth in India. An important finding is that in indian virus, only one small mutation has happened, making that attachment weak, Whereas in the Italian virus, three mutations have occurred, making it more deadly to these people. So, this will become an important factor for us in India. The genome of the virus could be a factor for the variation observed so far in the lower mortality as well as the infection rate, compared to the west, especially in Italy.

Host immunity is also playing another important role. In Italy, the age of many patients being above 70-80 years, smoking, alcohol, comorbid conditions like diabetes, hypertension and so on. Therefore, with this combination, mortality levels are higher than usual, sometimes 10%. Whereas in India, in the USA, in China, the mortality is only about 2%.

How to contain the spread? There are two extreme options — one is complete shutdown, the other extreme is to keep everything open and test everybody. This is what South Korea did. Everything is still open in South Korea but they did extensive testing of the population and those people who are positive have been isolated quickly. This is called the red zone or selective isolation.

In India, because of the demographics and because of the scale involved, extensive testing is not feasible. For us, the only alternative is to do a complete lockdown, which has been done. After this lockdown period. we can do more testing now that the test kits are becoming cheap and easily available and do selective isolation.

On the effect of onset of summer: a paper was published by MIT, USA, where they have shown the heat-sensitivity of this virus. This virus is unable to exist for long periods above 32 degrees . In India, it means that hopefully, as we progress into May — when the heat rises — maybe the virus transmission may come down. But indoors, where we are living in air-conditioning or where the temperature levels are cool, the problem still persists. So, temperature may have a role but it might start having an effect only after May.

So things are not as bleak as one would imagine!

www.newindianexpress.com/lifestyle/health/2020/mar/29/no-need-to-panic-covid-19-is-something-we-can-easily-conquer-medical-expert-dr-d-nageshwar-reddy-2123093.html

Choice is yours

Irresponsible China and its mighty military junta, CPC are squarely responsible for the present pandemonium; Trump may not be wrong in pointing fingers repeatedly at the Chinese leadership for not alerting the world in time. Strangely, WHO was also playing down the havoc created by the dragon monster.

See the timelines: A 34-year-old Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at the Wuhan Central Hospital, reporting about the virus way back in 30th December; He shared his concern in a chat room that seven patients admitted in his hospital were exhibiting Sars-like symptoms. The ophthalmologist said all of them had eaten animal meat from the same seafood market in Hubei. Li explained that, according to a test he had seen, the illness was a coronavirus, a large family of viruses that includes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) which led to 800 death in China and the world in 2003. Li’s message was meant to be a cautionary note for his medical school friends to take care of their loved ones. Within hours of Wenliang revealing the information, the chats spread like wildfire on Chinese social media. But how did the Chinese government react: On January 3, Chinese authorities summoned Li and seven other doctors and accused them of spreading rumours! A stern message calling for an end to rumour-mongering was broadcast across China.

The ophthalmologist apologised and returned to work; he later developed the same symptoms — coughing, shortness of breath and fever. By January 12, he was admitted to a hospital. His condition deteriorated and he had to be shifted to the ICU.

It was not till January 20 that China would take stock of the spread of coronavirus and declare a national emergency. This time the Chinese President Xi Jinping changed gears and said, “People’s lives and health should be given top priority and the spread of the outbreak should be resolutely curbed.” But, the epidemic that could have been contained within its national borders soon transgressed; the Chinese New Year traffic fuelling the impending doom.

Li’s diagnosis of coronavirus was confirmed only on February 1 and he died five days later.

A too-harsh crackdown on online rumours during China’s deadly viral epidemic had undermined public trust, China’s top court said in a highly rare rebuke of the police force. That means carrying out systemic cover-ups of scandals and deficiencies that may reflect poorly upon the CPC’s leadership, instead of doing what is necessary to respond. Truly an ‘Orwellian regime’!

But many a lessons should we learn from Italy who does not even share borders with the dragon but paid a very heavy price for inaction. 1 lakh Chinese Workers work in Textile Industry in Italy. Italy even has direct flights from Wuhan.

Moreover, Chinese New Year 2020 was celebrated from Jan 25 to Feb 8, 2020. So many of these Chinese immigrants went home from Italy to Wuhan to celebrate the New Year with their families. When they returned after their leave, they were not tested in Italy airports.

Instead of testing and restricting these people, Italian authorities launched a ‘Hug a Chinese’ campaign in February.

“I’m not a virus. I’m human. Eradicate the prejudice.” This was the message of videos released in northern Italy in February this year, urging Italians to hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the coronavirus.

Italians fumbled many of the steps to contain the contagion — as preservation of basic civil liberties as well as its economy took precedence. They blamed Italy’s high number of infections on aggressive testing of people without symptoms in the north, which they argued only created hysteria and tarnished the country’s image abroad!

While on Jan. 21, as top Chinese officials warned that those hiding virus cases “will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity,” Italy’s culture and tourism minister while hosting a Chinese delegation to inaugurate the year of Italy-China Culture and Tourism, said “In Italy, we went from the risk of an epidemic to an infodemic,” disparaging media coverage that highlighted the threat of the contagion!

Italy is still paying the price of those early mixed messages by scientists and politicians. The people who have died in staggering numbers recently, were mostly infected during the confusion of a week or two ago. A prominent virologist in Milan said that people had felt safe to go about their usual routines and attributed the spike in cases last week to “that behavior.”

Very recently, about 120,000 people marched through downtown Madrid to celebrate International Women’s Day. Some 60,000 soccer fans filled one of the city’s largest stadiums. And 9,000 supporters of Vox, Spain’s third-largest party, gathered inside a former bullring.

Now Spain has the second-highest number of coronavirus infections of any European country, after Italy — overtaking the larger nations of France and Germany — and faces the fastest spreading contagion on the Continent. Earlier, the Spanish authorities had avoided sweeping measures that could spook people!

Iranian health officials initially boasted of their public health prowess. They ridiculed quarantines as “archaic” and portrayed Iran as a global role model.

In the holy city of Qom, the site of the first and most significant outbreak in Iran, mosques and shrines are still holding mass worship services for visiting pilgrims despite the Health Ministry’s advice. “The government is putting religious prestige and public image ahead of public safety,” was the leadership’s overall response.

Strangely WHO was downplaying the seriousness of the outbreak till then: Only on Mar 11, after 114 countries have reported that 118,000 have contracted Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, known as SARS-CoV2, this world organisation, decided to declare this as pandemic. By then, nearly 4,300 people had already died.

Going by the bad experience of Italy, Spain and Iran, what is required is a bitter pill. Corrective measures included isolation and shutting down irrespective of the impact on the economy! Aggressive Statistical testing of asymptomatic population in the virus sensitive hubs, though may be desirable but would be impractical and unviable; But half hearted measures would not yield any result. The choice is between “life” and short term major obstacles as “economy downslide and freedom”.

The choice is not difficult to make!

Credits:

1. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/chinese-doctor-who-first-found-out-about-coronavirus-was-censored-arrested-now-dead-due-to-virus-1643999-2020-02-06

2. Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html?referringSource=articleShare

Facts and Myths of COVID-19

New Corona (COVID-19), a Flu virus: The monster virus, COVID-19, that has taken the world by storm since the dawn of this year, is yet another type of flu infection. The flu, or influenza, in general, is a highly contagious viral infection, that mainly affects the respiratory system. It is usually a seasonal illness, with yearly outbreaks killing hundreds of thousands of people around the world. Though rare, completely new versions of the virus may infect people and spread quickly, resulting in pandemics (an infection that spreads throughout the world) with death tolls in the millions, just like in 1918 for example! Symptoms of the flu include sudden onset fever, coughing, sneezing, a runny nose, and severe malaise, though it can also include vomiting, diarrhea and nausea. Influenza has plagued humankind for centuries and, given its highly variable nature, may continue to do so for centuries to come. There were only four major flu- epidemics in the last 100 years, is a fact for comforting the pessimists!

The “flu season” typically lasts from late fall to spring. One may be surprised to know that each year, flu epidemics cause a mind boggling 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths around the globe, (generally the elder ones are the victims) according to the World Health Organisation.

Evolution of COVID-19 virus: Not all coronaviruses are deadly – the ones endemic to like the common cold, are often considered inconsequential. like the common cold, are often considered inconsequential. Humans are not (presently) immune to this new virus as the human system has not yet evolved for this new infection, which is the evolutionary consequence of mutations in animals. Both the recent outbreaks, previously SARS in 2003 and COVID-19 now, have origins in the wet market of China!

Bats have been known to carry Ebola and Marburg viruses, passing them on to humans. Researchers have been looking at bats ever since the SARS outbreak because bats are the real reservoir, not civets, that was originally thought. They may also be hosting henipaviruses and strains of rabies.

Chinese menu is known for delicacies with fruit bats. in the communities in Yunnan Province in rural southwest China, who live near bat colonies, it is found that there is some 3% prevalence of exposure to bat viruses, This Suggests that all the time across the region, bat viruses are getting into people, either infecting them with a mild infection with no clinical signs, or causing respiratory illness that never gets diagnosed properly. May be they have developed immunity. So this outbreak is probably just one of a number of spillover events that have happened in south China.

Researchers initially suspected that intermediate species were necessary for coronaviruses to move from the primary reservoir species into humans. Perhaps the virus evolved and adapted to the intermediate species, making it more efficient at binding to human cells. However, recent studies have shown that some bat coronaviruses can infect human cells without passing through an intermediate host — meaning a significant reservoir of undiscovered coronaviruses may lurk out there. In some places in the world, eating bats is illegal due to the danger of zoonotic diseases.

Similarly, it was once believed pigs might serve as a “mixing vessel” where avian influenza strains would become better adapted to mammals, since pigs seem to have both α2,3- and α2,6-linked sialic acids on the cells of their trachea, allowing human and bird strains to mix and produce novel human-adapted viruses. But while pigs may serve this function, it is now known that such mixing is not required, and that avian viruses can infect humans without a pig intermediate.

Some researchers also claim that the deadly virus was passed to humans from bats – via snakes, which are sold at the open-air market in Wuhan. Results derived from evolutionary analysis suggest for the first time that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV.

The sequencing of Stimulator of interferon genes (STING), isolated from the Chinese rufous horseshoe bat which plays an important role in innate immunity, revealed a striking abnormality in the bat version: a mutation that was universal across 30 bat species. This mutation originally provided an evolutionary advantage to bats by preventing their immune systems from boiling over every time the animals fly. But this mutation triggers an uncontrollable storm of interferons and other inflammation-inducing molecules, overwhelming the human immune system while infecting them.

Spread mechanism: The principal mode of transmission is still thought to be respiratory droplets, which may travel up to six feet from someone who is sneezing or coughing. The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. Close contact with an infectious person, such as shaking hands, or touching a doorknob, tabletop or other surfaces touched by an infectious person, and then touching your nose, eyes, or mouth can also transmit the virus. So wearing a face mask might not actually prevent the droplets of infected person contaminating you while sneezing from getting deposited on your face which may enter your respiratory system. Instead, a face mask worn by the other person might help in preventing the spread effectively.

It is advisable, especially on returning home after day’s work, especially travelling in crowded public transport, to remove the clothing for washing and take a shower with soap; insist on this regimen especially if there are toddlers and elders (who are vulnerable) at home;

Is the COVID-19 virus infection deadlier than other epidemics? The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent. But even a disease with a relatively low death rate can take a huge toll if enormous number of people catch it.

Each person with the COVID-19 virus appears to infect 2.2 compared 1.3 for the seasonal flu. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. As an epidemic comes under control, the reproduction number, as it’s called, will fall. The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the COVID-19, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were available.

Symptoms: it is more like a common flu; infact much less in severity in the initial phase; Once a person is exposed and becomes infected, the incubation period before the onset of symptoms is about five days, although this can vary from two to 11 days. Flu-like symptoms are often mild at first and some patients recover without the symptoms becoming more serious. But for a subset who get worse, day four after the onset of symptoms is usually when they seek medical care because they develop shortness of breath and early pneumonia, and they may become critically ill by day seven. After day 11, most patients who survive are on their way to recovery.

Management:

Corona virus is large in size where the cell diameter is 400-500 micro and for this reason any mask prevents its entry directly.

The virus does not settle in the air but is grounded, so it is not transmitted by air.

Coronavirus when it falls on a metal surface, it will live 12 hours, so washing hands with soap and water well enough.

Corona virus when it falls on the fabric remains 9 hours, so washing clothes or being exposed to the sun for two hours meets the purpose of killing it.

The virus lives on the hands for 10 minutes, so putting an alcohol sterilizer in the pocket meets the purpose of prevention.

If the virus is exposed to a temperature of 26-27 ° C. it will be killed, as it does not live in hot regions. Also drinking hot water and sun exposure will do the trick

And stay away from ice cream and eating cold is important.

Gargle with warm and salt water kills the tonsils germs and prevents them from leaking into the lungs.

It is suggested if there are flu like symptoms, sneezing, stuffy nose, sore throat, fever for beyond three days, be under expert medical care (no self medication please). manage the patient based on symptoms with body fluids; antibiotics to counter secondary infections;

Immunity: Influenza is a constantly evolving virus. It quickly goes through mutations that slightly alter the properties of antigens. Due to these changes, acquiring immunity (either by getting sick or vaccinated with a flu shot) to an influenza subtype one year will not necessarily mean a person is immune to a slightly different virus circulating in subsequent years. But since the strain produced by this “antigenic drift” is still similar to older strains, the immune systems of some people will still recognize and properly respond to the virus. In other cases, however, the virus can undergo major changes to the antigens such that most people don’t have an immunity to the new virus, resulting in pandemics rather than epidemics. This “antigenic shift” can occur if an influenza subtype in an animal jumps directly into humans. It can also occur if an intermediate host such as a pig—which is susceptible to avian, human, and swine influenza—becomes simultaneously infected by influenza viruses from two different species and the viruses exchange genetic information to acquire completely new antigens, a process called genetic reassortment. Even those who recover from COVID-19 might not be immune forever. It is known that exposure to the four seasonal human coronaviruses (that cause the common cold) does produce immunity to those particular viruses: the immunity lasts longer than that of seasonal influenza, but is probably not permanent.

Has the last word been delivered? No; till now no vaccines for this virus; no known results of successful management with alternative therapies such as siddha or homeopathy, so far. To contain the mortality, it is necessary to quarantine the affected persons; it is also necessary to advice/force people who are prone to sneezing and coughing to cover their mouth and nose with face masks (even primitive) or at least cover with their hand kerchief! Use of disinfectants in public rest rooms would aid in restricting the spread.

Though the mortality rate might turn out to be closer than ‘common flu’, the death toll can be kept under check only by total number of infected population – presently the rate of infection is more than that encountered in common flu season! Also, once the weather warms up, the infection would definitely come down!

The spectacle of survival race between the microbiological world and the kingdom of homosapiens, is an ongoing melodrama ever since the life appeared in this universe: one evolving to out beat the other – may be, gloating in momentary ascendancy! Having terrorised almost quarter of the world, today, it is for this tiny organism – COVID-19; tomorrow?

Belief in ‘Beliefs’

I can’t resist sharing my contention of ‘limited success‘ of belief of religion in a world with a growing population of educated youths having analytical bent of mind, who refuse to take anything for granted. It is a welcome change in many cultures that do not brush aside demands of justification for religious propositions, as preposterous. Though scientific explanation clearly sets aside the theory of creation and hence the concept of God, giving way to evolution, there are many who lend credence to the effect of ‘consolation’, the religious belief provides at times of grief and emotional disturbance: It lends strong and supportive shoulders to lean than even trusted friend and devoted family.

As Peter Medawar writes in his book, The limits of science, ‘I regret my disbelief in God and religious answers generally, for I believe it would give satisfaction and comfort to many in need of it if it were possible to discover good scientific and philosophical reasons to believe in God’.

I am not sure whether there are any two opinions on that. If the ‘blind’ belief in almighty provides even some ‘false’ relief, even if it is temporary, so be it. I am sure even staunch non-believers would agree…..

தமிழுக்கும் அமுதென்று பேர்

பதினைந்தாம் நூற்றாண்டில் வாழ்ந்த அருணகிரிநாதர், அவர் இயற்றிய கந்தர் அந்தாதியில், ஒரே ஒரு தமிழ் எழுத்தின் வரிசையை மட்டும் பயன்படுத்தி ஒரு வெண்பாவை அமைத்திருக்கும் அழகை காணும்போது, அவர் நாவில் தமிழன்னை என்னே தவழ்ந்து விளையாடுகிறாள் என்பதை எண்ணி வியக்காமல் இருக்க இயலாது!

திதத்தத் தத்தித்த திதி தாதை தாத துத்தி தத்தி

(தா) தித தத்து அத்தி ததி தித்தித்ததே து துதித்து இதத்து

(ஆ) தி தத்தத்து அத்தி தத்தை தாத திதே துதை தாது அதத்து

(உ) தி தத்து அத்து அத்தி தித்தி தீ தீ திதி துதி தீ தொத்ததே.

பதவுரை

திதத்த ததித்த … திதத்த ததித்த என்னும் தாள வரிசைகளை,

திதி … தன்னுடைய நடனத்தின் மூலம் நிலைபடுத்துகின்ற,

தாதை … உன்னுடைய தந்தையாகிய பரமசிவனும்,

தாத … மறை கிழவோனாகிய பிரம்மனும்,

துத்தி … புள்ளிகள் உடைய படம் விளங்கும்,

தத்தி … பாம்பாகிய ஆதிசேஷனின்,

தா … முதுகாகிய இடத்தையும்,

தித … இருந்த இடத்திலேயே நிலைபெற்று, (ஆனால்)

தத்து … அலை வீசுகின்ற,

அத்தி … சமுத்திரமாகிய திருப்பாற்கடலையும் (தன்னுடைய வாசஸ்தலமாகக் கொண்டு),

ததி … அயர்பாடியில் தயிர்,

தித்தித்ததே … மிகவும் இனிப்பாக இருக்கிறதே என்று சொல்லிக்கோண்டு,

து … அதை மிகவும் வாரி உண்ட (திருமாலும்),

துதித்து … போற்றி வணங்குகின்ற,

இதத்து … பேரின்ப சொரூபியாகிய,

ஆதி … மூலப்பொருளே,

தத்தத்து … தந்தங்களை உடைய,

அத்தி … யானையாகிய ஐராவதத்தால் வளர்க்கப்பட்ட,

தத்தை … கிளி போன்ற தேவயானையின்,

தாத … தாசனே,

திதே துதை … பல தீமைகள் நிறைந்ததும்,

தாது … ரத்தம் மாமிசம் முதலிய சப்த தாதுக்களால் நிரப்பப்பட்டதும்,

அதத்து உதி … மரணம் பிறப்பு இவைகளோடு கூடியதும்,

தத்து அத்து … பல ஆபத்துக்கள் நிறைந்ததும் (ஆகிய)

அத்தி தித்தி … எலும்பை மூடி இருக்கும் தோல் பை (இந்த உடம்பு),

தீ … அக்னியினால்,

தீ … தகிக்கப்படும்,

திதி … அந்த அந்திம நாளில்,

துதி தீ … உன்னை இவ்வளவு நாட்களாக துதித்து வந்த என்னுடைய புத்தி,

தொத்ததே … உன்னிடம் ஐக்கியமாகி விட வேண்டும்.

பொழிப்புரை

நடராஜ மூர்த்தியாகிய சிவபெருமானும் பிரம்மனும் இடைச்சேரியில் தயிர் உண்டு பாற்கடலையும் ஆதிசேஷனையும் பாயாலாகக் கொண்டு யோக நித்திரை செய்யும் திருமாலும் வணங்குகின்ற ஆனந்த முதலே, தேவயானையின் தாசனே, ஜனன மரணத்திற்கு இடமாய் சப்த தாதுக்கள் நிறைந்த பொல்லாத இந்த உடம்பை தீயினால் தகிக்கப்படும் பொழுது உன்னை துதித்து வந்த என் சித்தத்தை உன்னுடைய திருவடிக்கு நீ ஆட்படுத்த வேண்டும்.

இந்த ஓரெழுத்து வெண்பா பாட்டிற்கு உரை கூற முடியாமல் வில்லிபுத்தூரார் அருணகிரியாரிடம் தோல்வியுற்றதாக கூறுகிறார்கள்.

அருணகிரியாரின் பாடலை திருமதி தேவகி சந்திரன்பாடுவதை கேட்டு அனுபவியுங்கள்:

இந்த பாடலின் தாக்கம்தான், வானம்பாடி என்ற படத்தில ‘ஆண்கவியை வெல்லவந்த பெண்கவியே வருக’ எனும் பாடலை கண்ணதாசன் இயற்ற தூண்டுதலாக இருந்திருக்குமோ என்று எழும் ஐயமும் இயற்கைதானே! எம் எஸ் வி இன் இசையில் அமைந்த இந்த பாடல் என்றென்றும் திகட்டாத ஒன்று!

Should Theism embrace evolutionary reforms?

Is it not expedient for the religions to embrace evolutionary reforms for the humanity to live in peace and harmony?

To propitiate the almighty, the practice of sacrificing human life during the period of epic was later limited to animal sacrifices; in most of the altars, this also has been shunned; some may even suspect the sanctity on the ritual practice of pouring milk over the deity or offerings of flowers and fruits in Agni; Changes in the offing are visible across the way these rituals are being performed! The realisation, that the almighty is after all may not be bothered over the finer details, is percolating across the spectrum of masses! Would he waver in bestowing blessings if those are offered to the needy and poor mortals? Would this not bring a revolution in our ways of praying, if the religious heads themselves start advising the hard liners? Does anyone have the courage and wherewithal to take it forward?

Have you ever faced the dilemma of conflict between your own judgement and the societal customs – whether to trace the beaten path laid out in religious scriptures and the ones customarily followed in ‘your section’ of the society or boldly choose your independent opinion on the basis of your own assessment and experience? Why should one be apologetic for acting as per conscience which might not conform to the diktats of the society, provided its not being, of course, illegal?

It is not uncommon for religious pedagogues to unabashedly plead some part of their scriptures as unacceptable as they must be prevailing in that era under compelling circumstances but not any more now, while some other part should apply, in their opinion, ‘religiously’ without any adaptation? This ambivalence is endemic in all the religious faiths, be it Judaism, Christianity, Hinduism, etc., Could this selective approach survive any longer? Would any such insistence not tantamount to brainwashing?

There are some faiths that would not renounce some religious dictums even though their conscience plead abjuring them! Religious indoctrination at an early age could have propelled them in this direction resisting reversal later when reasons reign supreme! To quote Sam Harris in The End of Faith: Each new generation of children is taught that religious propositions need not be justified in the way that all others must, as the civilisation is still besieged by the armies of the preposterous.

Would the society take you kindly if you express dissents of such sorts? But, Would such cultures survive if they do not evolve and adapt themselves with knowledge accruing in the increasingly interdependent societal interactions?

Would cultures wither at all and lose their identity if they are amenable for such ‘mutations’? But the time tested Evolutionary principles of Darwin profess such mutations, as the successful survival strategy!

Eureka! Scientist plays God!

Would Faith heal? Would God interfere in day to day affairs of the world?

It might be surprising to know the answer may lie in ‘Quantum physics‘. This theory explains the inter convertibility of energy and matter and proposes that they are essentially one and the same; Big Bang theory supposes the origin of universe with the creation of matter from energy! The Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and most powerful particle accelerator, located in Franco-Swiss border near Geneva, is conducting research in unravelling the myths of this origin.

Our body is also another conundrum of matter-cosmic energy interaction. It consists of matter in the form of cells and organs, functions as a single entity, coordinated by brain with the aid of electrical impulses initiated by enzymes, transmitted by nerves, neurons etc., All these are all well understood in today’s science. On the other hand, the body is interacting constantly with the environment around: For instance, the material body gets the trigger for any bodily physical reaction, from our six senses. Every one of us might have experienced sometime or the other, the influence of frame of mind on the body: it could have been caused by the environment around us, be it music or chatting with a good friend or playing with a pet; also hearing an unhappy news or a gory incident; we may interpret this as a trigger in the energy plane percolating down to the matter. Sometimes even the mere presence of a person, without even seeing him, might trigger a reaction! Is there any wave? There may be more than the known six sensory organs to detect these energy fields? May be, Why not?

My respected friend and ex-colleague, Seshadri struck a spark in my thinking, while responding to one of my FB posts on ‘atheism’. He explains that this energy, which resides inside us and interacting with outside energy field is called ‘Atma’ or ‘soul’; Hindu philosophers name this as ‘God’! While Some others call the external energy field as ‘God’! Some say, both are one and the same, while others say these two are distinctly different! So be it!

The external energy field of ‘cosmos’ could have a telling impact on the ‘body’ with or without the knowledge of the individual!

It is prudent to believe that all living things must be having ‘atma’ as all of them can interact with cosmic energy field! All the living beings are in a mutually interacting energy field, whether you like it it not!

When the body dies, the matter decays while the energy of the individual merges with the one outside, or the ‘cosmos’!

The enjoyment or suffering one experiences is on the matter; by suitable training it is possible to subvert this body by the ‘soul’ to experience the ‘bliss’, the supreme happiness. You may be able alleviate or even cure your diseases by either your inner ‘soul’ or by external ‘souls’! It could be when one does ‘yoga’ or ‘kriya’ or gets a ‘placebo’ from a ‘guru’ or ‘Prasadam’ from your favourite deity!

The bottom line is ‘unwavering belief’ that funnels the external energy inside; could this be the key to your well being and happiness?

Should there be any objection to name this ‘key’ as ‘GOD’? You may even call ‘It’ as ‘Quantum Conscience’, if you are not an ardent atheist! Would the concept of God (or religion) survive without ‘miracles’? Are religions necessary at all in a scientifically advanced world? Isn’t the time ripe in the human evolution calendar to dispense with the need of ‘religion’ and the fear of ‘God’?

Today ‘babies’ with designer genes are proposed to be conceived in the laboratories that would soon be in the wombs! Would the days be far away for science to device a system for external energy interacting with ‘Atma‘ for curing physical and mental ailments and even to attain a state of ‘bliss’ with this ‘synthetic’ energy field! Soon you may go to the ‘neo-wellness energy centres’ instead of the ‘archaic’ hospitals!

So, after all, God may not be beyond the perception of even today’s (limited) realm of science! And scientists may offer apparently non invasive solutions like God’s magic wand!

Demonstrate nationalism else risk being branded ‘secular’

“Never thought I would ever see Asad Owaisi and MIM in a rally holding Indian flags. Maybe we should thank PM Modi.” a tweet appeared sometime back.

Is it a cynical comment on the Muslims to unfairly glorify those who promote a divisive culture with the use of the flag to serve their own agenda? Or Is the CAA narrative deliberately misquoted by the media and the opposition as anti-Muslims? Is it not unethical to forecast without any iota of truth, that it would be used to drive the Muslims out of the country sooner or later with NRC? There are even attempts to stall NPR under this pretext!

Modi-baiters might have seen this as the only recourse left to take on the BJP roller coaster. Surprisingly the government, that has weathered the impending storm post art 370 repeal so well, bungled miserably in tackling the dissidents’ strategy.

If the parliament represents the majority opinion of the people in this representative democracy, why should this issue blow up in the street? how to interpret the violent and protracted ‘dissent’ that is portrayed in many parts of the country despite SC being seized of the matter?

In Independent India, secularism as a concept has never become a target. But today, whatever might be the problem of definition, it appears that there is a concerted effort on to seriously undermine our own Constitution and its core principle — secularism. Projecting secularism as anti-Hindu is dangerous not only for India but for Hindus living worldwide. Governing a country like India without secular values is not possible, given its diversity — religious, cultural, linguistic, geographic, ethnic and even racial. It is also appalling to note that some Muslims, even after seven decades of living in this ountry, feel the need to show their nationalism by waving the tricolour or singing the anthem.

Sometimes even a ‘truely’ nationalistic citizen is also compelled to demonstrate his patriotism in cinema halls! If you are a Muslim risk being non-nationalist; if you are a Hindu, risk being branded secular!

National flag is not a just a piece of ‘cloth’ and constitution is not just another ’book’. To win the ballots, don’t coerce Hindus to disown ‘secularism’ or force Muslims to carry the ‘flag and sing national anthem’!

Enough of muddling up has taken place on this supposedly ‘trivial‘ one time clearance ‘sale‘! Statesmanship, not politicking, is the need of the hour.