Is saving, a sin and spending, a virtue?

Is saving a sin and spending a virtue? Consider the following statistics, if at all you believe in one.

Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much. Also, Japan exports far more than it imports. Has an annual trade surplus of over 100 billion. Yet Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.

Americans spend, save little. Also US imports more than it exports. Has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the American economy is considered strong and trusted to get stronger.

But where do Americans get money to spend? They borrow from Japan, China and even India. Virtually others save for the Americans to spend. Global savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars.

India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billion in US securities. China has sunk over $160 billion in US securities. Japan’s stakes in US securities is in trillions.

The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So, as the world saves for the US – It’s The Americans who spend freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going, that is for the US economy to work, other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter, which is $2 billion a day, to the US!

A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, US in China, or China in US? The US has invested in China less than half of what China has invested in US.

The same is the case with India. It have invested in US over $50 billion. But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India.

Why the world is after US?

The secret lies in the American spending, that they hardly save. In fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income. That the US spends is what makes it attractive to export to the US. So US imports more than what it exports year after year.

The world is dependent on US consumption for its growth. By its deepening culture of consumption, the US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption. But as the US needs money to finance its consumption, the world provides the money.

It’s like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the customer keeps buying from the shop. If the customer will not buy, the shop won’t have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the lucky customer. And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper financier.

Who is America’s biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan of course. Yet it’s Japan which is regarded as weak. Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend, so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted itself, reduced the savings rates, even charged the savers. Even then the Japanese did not spend (habits don’t change, even with taxes, do they?). Their traditional postal savings alone is over $1.2 trillion. Thus, savings, far from being the strength of Japan, has become its pain.

Hence, what is the lesson?

That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Amazing logic indeed!

Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in the US, told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully save! “Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put India on a growth curve“, he advised. This is one of the reasons for MNC’s homing in to India, seeing the potential consumer spending.

Compulsive consumerism is foisted slowly in the otherwise conservative traditional Indian society. The trend is ‘buying things for the sake of buying’. The feeling of ‘economic insecurity’ that was plaguing the earlier generation is on the wane with the swelling middle class. With credit card culture on the raise, many seemingly do not get the pinch of the expenditure and become spendthrifts. Don’t you see, your living space is increasingly filled up with things that you would wish to dispense with (that is, if you haven’t felt it already).

The future societies would be radicalised by the catchy commercials, with the sermons, ‘Saving is a sin, and spending is a virtue.‘

So, what should you do? get some wiseman (paradoxically called a miser) to squeeze his expenses and save so that you can borrow from them and spend !!!

Ignore the conservative minorities who always howl that ‘the world is racing towards an economic mess?’

Does this logic of ‘spending for the economic growth‘ of the country, logical? Isn’t it a crazy solution? Who would protect you during your ‘rainy days’? Should your welfare not precede that of the country’s? There is no two opinion that somebody should spend for total growth. Making others spend while you save is a good proposition. Should it be the other country or your own? Why not put more money in our countrymen’s pocket for growth? May be there would be some inflation.. but it is ok if you produce more.. But, somehow I can’t digest the idea of funding a foreigner to buy your product… The way our GDP is growing makes one believe that the idea of consumption has already caught up with our folks! With a billion and quarter manpower, we may become world superpower sooner than later!

OMG! I never imagined that economics would be so complicated! But my wife understands it better, that is why she splurges extravagantly!

Pakistan’s Nuclear Bluff busted at last….

Husain Haqqani, who was Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, in his latest book is “Reimagining Pakistan“, reiterates the need for reigning in on Pak terror groups operating in their soil. In a hard hitting dictum, he opines, “Pakistan can no longer link its tolerance or support for terrorist groups with the grievances of the people of Kashmir in hope of securing international attention to Kashmiri human rights concerns”.

Since 1999, crises between India and Pakistan have tended to evolve in four stages. First, eager to get international attention for the dispute over Kashmir, a Pakistan-based militant group launches an attack in India. Then India threatens retaliation, which in the past involved mobilisation of troops along the Pakistan border. Faced with Indian threats, Pakistan raises the specter of nuclear confrontation and asks the United States and other major powers to help defuse the situation. Finally, American diplomacy provides Pakistan a face-saver, and the threat of war subsides. The same story repeats in every episode of terror bleeding the nation with the undercurrent theme “Nuclear threat“.

Pakistan’s intelligence establishment counts on India’s fear of conflict escalating to the nuclear level while planning terrorist attacks. Instead of nuclear weapons being a deterrent to war, this approach allows for low-cost, low-intensity war, which can be carried on endlessly under a nuclear umbrella. But now India feels it has found a soft spot where it can strike — whether on ground using special forces, as in 2016, or using air strikes as they have in the current crisis — without crossing the threshold for all-out war between the nuclear powers.

At last, Pakistan’s nuclear bluff has been busted, there will be pressure on every future Prime Minister to respond in a kinetic rather than a cosmetic manner to mass terror attacks sponsored from Pakistan. Very little was done after Pathankot (besides giving ISI operatives a guided tour of the facility). There was a stronger response after Uri, although the surgical strike was conducted through “keyhole surgery” and therefore did not leave much of a mark. Pulwama has resulted—for the first time since 1998—in a relatively robust armed response, followed up by the shooting down of an F-16 when the PAF sought to do what the IAF had done a day after the latter crossed over the International Border to attack terror sites.

In fact, world leaders seem to have changed their tack and ignored the well-worn four stages of previous India-Pakistan crises. For example, US Secretary of State Pompeo, emphasised “the urgency of Pakistan taking meaningful action against terrorist groups operating on its soil” along with leaders of France and Germany, instead of focusing on finding a face-saver for Pakistan.

Pakistan’s nuclear bluff busted at last. Is it the dividend for Modi’s ‘globe trotting’ and ‘hugging’ diplomacy?

Would Modi keep us his pressure?

Modi made it clear that the costs of terror attacks for Pakistan would no longer be minimal as in the past. ‘The pay back will be with interest’, he roars from a public platform!! Not surprisingly, the finance minister Arun Jaitley seems to be piquantly saying that, India having the ability to carry out an Osama-type operation deep in the heart of Pakistan like the US did… A threat presently may not be far from realistic, so obviously scary to the Pakistan! But why not? Does Only US have the sole rights for retaliation? Are we very different from the whites?

The hectic diplomatic manoeuvres at the aftermath of Pulwama, yielded bountiful dividends: President Trump said that India was planning “something very strong”. Would he have been sounded on the things to come? The operation itself was executed so well, the diplomatic offensive prior to the strike, and after it, has been equally impressive. While China, which has traditionally backed Pakistan on JeM chief Masood Azhar, was forced to sign off on a UN Security Council (UNSC) statement condemning the attack, and the US/UK/France have made yet another attempt to get the UNSC to label Azhar a ‘global terrorist’; while China may, once again, scuttle the move, it says a lot that the pressure is being maintained by the global community; After the Balkot strike and the skirmishes at the LOC thereafter, instead of condemning India, Trump enthusiastically said “We have reasonably attractive news from Pakistan and India” and hoped the hostilities would end soon; The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), though condemned India’s strike, did not withdraw its invitation to foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, inspite of Pakistan—a founding member of the OIC— objecting strongly. Shushma attended and aired the need for fighting the terrorism and seeking support from the civilised world, while Pak had to boycott! The total isolation of Pakistan on the diplomatic front led Pakistan to recalibrate its responses.

One need not be so naive not to believe that, it is highly unlikely that Abhinandan would have been released so soon, unhurt, without global pressure. By no stretch of imagination, Imran Khan can be credited with the peace gesture, leave alone his being a candidate for ‘Nobel Peace Prize’ as some of his staunch lunatic admirers taunt for! But, unfortunately, as Gurumurthy has put it appropriately, There are five governments in Pakistan: The main one run by Army, second by ISI, the third by parliament, the fourth by Americans and the fifth by the terrorists. Which one will do what & when is unknown. So long as US was dominant in Pak there was some order. With the US influence weakening, its just anarchy. Can there be an undue wait for long, while the neighbours bleed?

But alas! An Opposition so blinded by hatred for Modi, took no pride in what the country had achieved. While the Opposition’s sniping, and, indeed, its attempt to scuttle the Rafale purchase despite the huge delays in procurement—even as the Air Force’s fleet kept dwindling—suggest that it, and not Modi, is guilty of playing politics. It is, of course, unfortunate that the Opposition is not with him in this endeavour, though that may change once the elections are over—right now, no one wants to concede anything since, at least till the Pakistani misadventure, most predicted the elections would be a lot closer than imagined in May 2014. The fear of loosing looms large so as to blind them from seeing the larger picture.

Would Modi keep up the pressure to dent the terror dens and maim them now or would he wait for the General elections to be over? It may not be far from reality to prophecise that the country is on course for further subdivision, if it does not restrain the non-state actors from indulging in ‘bloody heroics’!

Credits

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/modis-tactics-work-now-to-get-masood-azhar/1501907/

Is Conflict escalation, a preferred option?

Why did India chose to send the Mirages on a risky mission to strike the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist training facility, when it had the safer option of deploying surface to surface missiles? Whether there were any semblance of doubts of assured success? With a major national election looming on the horizon, guaranteed success was necessary and the mission could not be a damp squib. Any losses would have put back a potential electoral success, and less than desired optics would not have quenched the obvious thirst for retribution being demanded by the Indian public.

Under the circumstances, the most appropriate option no doubt was to go surgical against a Jaish facility and use the aerial route. The Balakot location was large, sufficiently notorious and targeting it carried the basic principle of surprise so essential for success. It met the need for the right optics without going too high in the escalation ladder. Not touching a military or civilian facility meant that the morals involved were intact and remained in India’s favour. That is an important aspect when dealing with the international community, where initial success had already been gained. The amount of importance attached to surprise did get the IAF to select its launch from airfields as far away in central India as Gwalior. It had all the heroics needed for a general public display when needed. The final decision appears to have most appropriately met all the needs of the situation. After all is Modi not a master strategist?

While there is euphoria in the Indian media regarding the huge success in the mission of ‘blood for blood’ battlecry, Pakistan rejects those tall claims. There is no confirmation on casualties yet from the official Indian side either. But there is a huge diplomatic victory for the Indian government with even close all whether allies like China not categorical in reprimanding the Indian offensive.Undoubtedly the diplomatic positives helped to take the right decision.

Yes, Pakistan is now at the crossroads. The decision it takes in the hours and days ahead is going to determine its future. It can either change course and accept that its policy of proxy war through jihadis will no longer work with respect to India, or else it can choose to continue on that slippery slope and raise the ante through a military strike against India.

But for India, a suitable conciliatory act could be to get the immediate and unconditional release of the Indian pilot now held in Pakistani custody.

Will India be willing to de-escalate at this point? The scope to do so appears difficult, but it also is in India’s interest not to escalate beyond a point. The diplomatic traction gained does place some encumbrances on India’s subsequent options. It would be unwilling to lose that advantage. In fact, in that direction lie some of the better options of reining in Pakistan and forcing it to retract from the dangerous path it had chosen to embark upon 30 years ago.

After having scored in the diplomatic and in the battle front, and also jolting the strategists in Pakistan with the paradigm shift in the Indian policy in countering cross border terrorism, Modi is well set in the buoyant electoral arena. Has Modi grabbed the golden opportunity which MMS badly missed in 2008?

All said and done, Modi’s astute shrewdness would be on display in the Conflict termination, and not conflict exacerbation, which must be the India’s preferred option.

Credits:

http://www.asianage.com/opinion/oped/280219/indias-response-measured-escalation-a-challenge.html

Our judicial system

A cow was running away from the jungle. ..

An elephant stopped the cow and asked the reason behind the panic..

Cow said : “government had ordered to catch all the buffaloes in the jungle”

Elephant asked: “but you are a cow, why are you running ??

Cow said: ” I know I am cow , but if they catch me , it will take 20 years to prove that I am a cow not a buffalo. …!

Elephant also started running with the cow….

Doesn’t he deserve a word of praise?

Every opposition leader has praised the Indian Air Force – conspicuously missing was a word of praise for the political leadership. Some notorious neta went to the extent of even accusing Modi of stage managing the strike as dropping ‘bombs’ in barren areas of Pak territory to gain political mileage in the ensuing elections!

Addressing a party rally hours after the air strikes at Idukki in Kerala, state CPM secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan stunned all when he said, “The BJP government, which fears defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, is trying to polarise communities through war mongering.” Seeking to politicise the ‘Surgical Strikes 2.0’, Balakrishnan further said, “Instead of finding a solution to the insurgency in Kashmir, the BJP government is trying to make things worse by making the people of Kashmir enemies of the state.”

But look at what an army man does not mince words in complementing the establishment for the bravado. Air Marshal R K Sharma (retd), a Former Vice Chief of the Air Staff writes in the New Indian Express in a column thus…

The government’s decision to strike the terror camps shows its resolve to root out terrorism from its soil. This pre-emptive strike is also a show of strength and decisiveness on the part of the government. The success of the strike is a reflection of the government’s broader intent to address the issue of terrorism. The message is that India would not tolerate violence beyond a point and opening the envelope of strikes goes two ways. These matters are handled in militaristic and diplomatic terms. This is what happened on the ground on Tuesday—the execution of a non-military strike which was required to be accomplished. The terrorists’ command headquarters, including their terror camps have been attacked with significant casualties and material damages.

India has made the choice of defending itself and has been considerate not to damage any innocent life.This strike is also a classic example of how smoothly the intelligence agencies functioned—hats off to the agencies which toiled to provide real-time actionable intelligence and inputs for this exercise. This incident is also exemplary of how strong teamwork can change the ballgame—where inputs from all have been incorporated to carry out a clean operation.

But now the time is up. If we find terror camps which Pakistan refuses to acknowledge and act on, we will have to take action and not allow chaos to reign in India.

Certainly, it is the government which will have to take the final call on when and how to take action. Isn’t that the political leadership that has to bear the brunt of criticism in case of a failed mission? Doesn’t it deserve a word of praise for a seemingly successful mission? But with elections round the corner, would the opposition camp take that risk?

Credits:

Operation Balakot: Terror and the significance of air power. https://goo.gl/x2uQtE

Modi’s new doctrine – prompt retribution: 350 for 40

When the Mirage 2000 jets returned after the successful bombing of the terrorists’ training camps, India’s security mindset and doctrine have changed forever. With this strike, the belief of the Pakistan security establishment that India would maintain its usual strategic restraint and of bleeding India with a thousand cuts using proxies like JeM without the fear of retaliation were also destroyed.

Till now, Pakistan harboured the sanguine belief that India would not broach an aggressive option bordering on conventional war. This is the first time after the 1971 war that India’s fighter jets entered Pakistani territory which they didn’t even at the height of Kargil conflict! Even after the Pulwama massacre, they were thinking of possible surgical strikes in only in the border areas of PoK!

India has stressed in the aftermath of the endeavour that the Air Force strike was a non-military and pre-emptive to take out terrorists who were planning new suicide attacks in India. The strikes were not meant to target Pakistan but only the terrorists, which the Pakistan government itself had committed in 2004 to act against terrorists on its soil. This way of paraphrasing the retaliatory mission, enables not only india putting up an acceptable show in the diplomatic front, but also is a huge diplomatic face-saver for Pakistan to ensure that the situation does not escalate in to a war, if it so desires..

Even Pakistan’s closest ally China showed tacit support to India by calling for “restraint” from both the countries. Significantly it did not mention the territorial violation of Pakistan. This must have upset Islamabad no end.

Imran has been held with pants down?

Credits:

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/modi-administration-changes-india-handling-of-pak-decisively-1999612

Mumbai to Pune in half an hour by Train?

With time becoming more and more a valuable commodity, the transportation industry is ready with a new way of thinking.

A company in USA, Virgin Hyperloop One, is testing a system for mass transportation at an astronomical speeds reaching upto 1000 Kmph. This would dwarf the present day rail travel with speeds not exceeding even half of this.

This is one of several companies in the United States, Canada and other countries developing hyperloop technology. The concept was promoted by Elan Musk, of electric-car Tesla and a private-rocket SpaceX tycoon and offered by one of his companies as open-source technology available to all. It works by propelling pods using magnetic levitation through a low-pressure, near-vacuum tube.

The low pressure minimizes friction and air resistance, greatly reducing the power needed. And because the pods travel in a tube, they’re not subject to shutdowns because of harsh weather like snow and polar vortexes.

To avoid making anyone sick, the system would take three minutes to accelerate to the maximum speed, and the train would need to travel 6 miles to turn 90 degrees.

Because of its slow takeoff rate, “you’ll feel only 30 to 40 percent of the acceleration compared to an airplane,” said the spokesman of Virgin, which has raised $295 million. This company is in the developing this concept with projects in India and Ohio.

Last month, Maharashtra declared the company’s proposed hyperloop system between Pune and Mumbai as an official infrastructure project. Passenger operations could begin by the middle of the next decade, cutting travel time between the cities to 30 minutes, from the present few hours. “The trip will be so smooth”, the company spokesman added, that “coffee won’t slide even at 600 mph”. Construction on a 7-mile test track in Nevada desert could start this year.

But one of my friends curtly remarked, “Let the first Bullet train run in India, then we can think of obsolescence etc; கூழுக்கே வழி இல்லை கொப்பளிக்க பன்னீருக்கு ஏம்பா போற” The famous adage in Tamil that is crudely translated into “should one who can’t even have even porridge, dream wine for goggling?”. But I am an optimist to wish belittling Modi’s Bullet! Too fairy a tale…?

Credits:

economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/startups/newsbuzz/travelling-at-600mph-indias-hyperloop-dreams-take-shape-in-the-nevada-desert/articleshow/68057638.cms

Business strategies run in the family?

Is dubious accounting the mysterious reason for the telecom giant Reliance Jio’s rosy balance sheets? Jio reported its fifth straight profitable October-December 2018 quarter, with a net profit of Rs 831 crore, compared with Rs 504 crore in the comparable previous quarter a year ago. This is inspite of Jio sinking a monumental $40 billion (Rs 2.8 lakh crore), huge marketing costs and the highest continuing infrastructure burden. Doesn’t it look strange for a company with huge infra investment, can break even so quickly?

Market watchers are truly baffled. Could it be ‘Creative’ Accounting? in the beginning, the balance sheet showed six months of revenues in a three-month reporting period! Jio also burnt crores in operating costs including salaries with these heads being shifted to capital instead of revenue costs and not showing on the income-expenditure statements. This was detected in the FY18 annual report. Even interest costs worth Rs 5,799 crore were capitalised. It is baffling why financial wizards are not taking the bull by the horn?

Lured by its cheapest pre and postpaid tariffs, Vodafone-Idea and Airtel list as many as 8 crore low-paying subscribers. They had accounted for a recharge of less than Rs 35 a month were dumped and disconnected post December last year. Now, no prizes to guess where these disconnected guys are headed! How do they add anything to Jio’s bottomline?

It doesn’t take extraordinary vision to understand where Reliance Jio is headed. The promise of cheap prices and easy access to data and smartphones is designed to finish off competition. Jio has sustaining power, which others don’t; but it is also obvious that the current price packages cannot sustain. We are down to three operators in the telecom space. There were too many earlier; and too much competition proved debilitating for the industry. But if there is no competition, consumers will be the losers, when Jio starts jacking up tariffs. It is high time the problems of an uneven playing field raised by the Cellular Operators Association are addressed by the government, and the industry allowed to become sustainable.

Is the neutral regulator TRAI helplessly watching the mayhem?

Is Mukesh is reenacting what his dad Dhirubhai did unethically while building his textile empire four decades ago? Modi leaning Auditor Gurumurthy, who brought out the capricious Reliance story to limelight at that time in Indian Express, is curiously dumb. Selective amnesia?

It is a proverbial adage that the ruthless Business strategies run in the blood!

Credits:

http://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2019/feb/17/jio-cant-be-allowed-to-finish-off-competitors-1939768.html

இடஒதுக்கீடு – ஒரு எண்ண ஓட்டம்

எனது நண்பர் ஒருவரின் பரிந்துரையின்படி எழுத்தாளர் ஜெயமோகன் எழுதிய ‘அறம்’ எனும் ஒரு சிறுகதை தொகுப்பினை படிக்கும் வாய்ப்பு சமீபத்தில் கிடைத்தது. அதில் ஒன்றுதான் ‘நூறு நாற்காலிகள்’. பழங்குடியில் பிறந்த கதாநாயகனின் மனப்போராட்டங்களின் வாயிலாக ஆசிரியர் தன் கருத்துக்களை விளக்கும் நடை மிகவும் பாராட்டுதலுக்கு உரியது.

காலம்காலமாக சமுதாயத்தில் ஒதுக்கப்பட்ட இனங்களும் மக்களும், மற்றவர்களால் ஏற்றுக்கொள்ளும் நிலமை உருவாக ஒன்றல்ல, இரண்டல்ல, வெகு தலைமுறைகளாகலாம் என்ற அவரின் கருத்து ஏற்கத்தக்க ஒன்றுதான். தன் தாயை எவ்வளவு முயன்றும் நாயகனால் தன் வசதியான வீட்டின் நான்கு சுவர்களுக்குள் இருத்திக்கொள்ள முடியவில்லை. நாடோடி சமூகத்தில் பிறந்த அவள், மகனின் மாடமாளிகையை ஒரு சிறையாக உணர்ந்து தன் மகனையும் தனது சமுதாயத்தின் வாழ்க்கை முறைக்கு திரும்பி வரஅழைப்பது, மகனின் மனப்போராட்டத்தின் உச்சகட்டம். அவனது இயல்பான தாழ்வு மனப்பான்மையைப் போக்க, அவனது உயரினத்தில் பிறந்த மனைவி அவனை ஊக்குவிக்க முயல்வதும், அவனது வாழ்க்கைப்போராட்டத்தின் ஓர் அங்கம்.

இடஒதுக்கீடுகளின் கட்டாயத்தையும், சமுதாயத்தின் ஏற்ற தாழ்வுகளுக்கு இடஒதுக்கீடுகள் மூலம் மட்டும் விடை கிடைக்காது என்பதையும் இதைவிட எளிதாக விளக்க இயலாது. இடஒதுக்கீடுகளின் பலனை தலைமுறை தலைமுறையாக அந்தசமுதாயத்தின் ஒரு பகுதியினரே தொடர்ந்து அனுபவித்து வருவதால் அந்த சமுதாயத்தைச் சேர்ந்த மற்றவர்களுக்கு பலன் கிடைக்காமல் தாழ்த்தப்பட்ட சமுதாயத்தின் ஒட்டுமொத்த முன்னேற்றமும் தடைபடுகிறது என்ற ஒரு ஏற்புள்ள வாதமும் உள்ளது. ஆயினும் பணம், பதவியால் மட்டும் சமுதாயத்தில் தாழ்த்தப்பட்ட இனத்தில் பிறந்தவர்கள் ஏற்றுக்கொள்ளப்படுவதில்லை என்பது மட்டும் மிகவும் கசப்பான ஒரு உண்மை.

நாட்டின் முன்னேற்றங்களுக்கு இடஒதுக்கீடு கொள்கை தடையாக உள்ளது என ஒரு சாராரின் எதிர்வாதம் எழுந்துள்ள வேளையில், ஆதரவான வாதங்களை முன்வைத்து ஒரு ஆக்கபூர்வமான விவாதத்துக்கு வித்திட்ட ஜெயமோகன் சாருக்கு ஒரு ‘ஜே’ போடலாமா?.